Well it's happened:  For the the first time in 100 days, McCain is a slight favorite to win the election.

Obama is only favored in states with 264 EVs; he is now a decided underdog in Ohio and Virginia.

Poblano is also making a strong case for Sebelius as Obama's running mate.  Now I've cooled on Hillary after Bill's ovetures to McCain, and I don't like Kaine, Bayh or Biden.  While Sebelius won't please the die-hard PUMAs, she could be effective in appealing to women.  But does she really add anything?  I'm hoping against hope it's Gov. Schweitzer or Gen. Clark.  Any thoughts?

So it looks like it's Evan Bayh as Obama's running mate--unless this is the biggest bluff so far.

I'm not sold on Evan Bayh.  He just doesn't provide the zing Obama needs right now.  With that little US map icon turning yellow on Pollster.com, it's time to throw a big caution flag out there on Obama's campaign.

Why mention tire gauges?  Leave that to the Shell Answer man.  People don't like to preached at.  It totally undercut what was an excellent response to the McCain energy offensive.  I know Bayh is actually more progressive than people think, but he is dull.  And will he swing Indiana?  I doubt it right now.  Indiana hasn't been polled in nearly six weeks.  This election will come down to MI, CO, OH and VA.

Obama is up three in the Gallup tracker.  Perhaps Rasmussen lags because of the timing in releases--6:30am Pacific vs. Gallup's 10am release time.

Another possibility is that a gap is opening up between registered and likely voters.  I still think McCain will win this election.

Any thoughts?

So I've been called a concern troll.

I've been a regular reader of MyDD for nearly six years, since just before the 2002 midterm elections.  Jerome had a contest
on how well the Republicans would do in the 2002 midterms.  He was dead on then, and he's right about what's happeing this year.  And I respect his analysis a lot.  And he's right about the energy issue--how did the Democrats get blindsided?

Even though I was a Hillary supporter in the primaries, I really want Obama to win.  It's really very important to have a Democrat in the White House.  And for a lot reasons--judicial appointments, overturning Bush's outrageous executive orders, and
restoring the rule of law, as well as getting a health care bill passed.

The ABC/Washington Post poll has mixed news for Barack Obama.
The good news is he leads 51-43 among registered voters.
The bad news this drops to 49-46 among likely voters.

And only 62% of Democrats are likely to vote.  And this includes
a third of Hillary supporters who will stay home or vote for McCain.  The Democrats' edge is 37-27 among registered voters, but only 33-32 among likely voters.  And interest among younger voters is down also.

Part of this is the summer doldrums, but I think his shifts on FISA and other issues have caused a decline in enthusiam.  Obama must have a succesfull trip abroad next week--it's that important to close the chasm between himself and McCain on foreign policy.

Obama's lead has dropped to three according to Newsweek.  It now just 44-41.  The poll suggests that Obama's "shift" to the center plus his courtship of Hillary Clinton has dimished his image of being a different type of candidate.  And his reputation as a flip-flopper has gone up.

Yes, his FISA pander was a huge mistake.  He could have shown leadership and urged at the very least a filibuster in the Senate.  He's got to back to being the Obama that he was before June 3.  And no more faith-based stuff either.

Otherwise it'll be hello to President McCain on November 5.

In part II of this series, I will look at Sen. Webb's pluses and minuses as Obama's running mate.  First the pluses:

1.  He shores up Obama's weaknesses on national security and military issues.  This is still a big concern to swing voters, and he could improve Obama's among men.

2.  Puts Virginia definitely in play.  He could help with independents and some rural voters with his populist approach
on domestic issues.

3.  He may help Obama in a few other close states like Pennsylvania and Ohio with his eceonomic populism.

Now the negatives:

1.  He's quirky and doesn't like campaigning.  He really should have beaten George Allen by more than just 9000 votes given Webb's military background.

2.  His views on women in the military and the Tailhook scandal
could cost Obama women voters.

The second installment of previewing potential running mates will discuss Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.  I'm alternating Democrats and Republicans, and with coverage of Republicans, it's about he (or she) can help or hurt Obama's chances.

So here's the take on Jindal:
Pros:

1.  He balances the GOP ticket agewise.  He's half McCain's age
and that could alleviate voter worries about McCain's age.